The Robusta production forecast has been lowered by USDA to 29.6 million bags, up 5.7% (1.6 million) from last year. Meanwhile, the estimate for the Arabica harvest has been revised slightly upwards to 1.2 million bags, compared to 1 million bags in MY2024/25.

Higher coffee prices have encouraged farmers to increase investments in coffee farming, including fertilizer use, says the report.

Favourable weather conditions, characterized by abundant rainfall, have supported coffee cultivation and are expected to drive higher yields. Some experts predict coffee production will increase by up to 10% in MY 2025/26.

Additionally, the Plant Production and Protection Department (PPPD) reports reduced damage from pests and diseases, such as mealybugs, branch dieback, and rust disease, compared to the previous year. Although mosquito bug damage has slightly increased, the overall impact of pests and diseases on coffee cultivation has declined.

Unfortunately, Typhoons Kalmaegi and extreme heavy rains during the harvest stage damaged coffee yields in some production areas, particularly in the Highland Central region.

Total coffee area was 732,000 hectares with total harvested area at 677,000 hectares in 2024 according to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office (NSO). PPPD estimates total coffee area in 2025 will be 730,000 hectares, and projects that coffee area will increase slightly to 731,000 hectares in 2026.

Total planting area in the Central Highland, the main coffee producing region, reached 676,500 hectares in 2025, with an expected production of 1.9 million tons (MT). So far only 74,500 hectares have been replanted/renewed in this region under the Coffee Replanting Program out of a planned 91,000 hectares.

The Replanting Program set a target of replanting 200,000 hectares of coffee between 2014-2025, one-third of the coffee area in this region. The Replanting Program is one of the Government’s primary policies for providing credit and technology to farmers to replace old low yield coffee trees with new varieties.

Exports are expected to reach 27.3 million bags, up from 25.2 million in 2024/25, according to the report from USDA. Green coffee shipments are forecast to grow to 24 million bags, up from 22.35 million in the previous year. Sales of soluble coffee are expected to reach 2.6 million bags (compared to 2.35 million in 2024/25), while sales of roasted coffee are expected to reach 700,000 bags (compared to 500,000).

On May 22, 2025, Vietnam was categorized as a “low risk” country under the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This designation allows coffee exported from Vietnam to the European Union (EU) to undergo a simplified due diligence process, with a compliance inspection rate of one percent.

Germany remained the largest importer in MY 2024/25, importing approximately 3.2 million bags of Vietnam coffee (+6%). Germany is followed by Italy, Spain, Japan and the United States. While exports to Germany grew, other major importers reduced purchases. Exports to Japan fell 20% compared to the previous marketing year.

Vietnam exported approximately 1.5 million bags to the United State in MY 2024/25, down 3% from MY 2023/24. On November 14, 2025, The United States announced a reduction in tariffs on coffee and certain other agricultural products. This may support increased imports in coffee from Vietnam in MY2025/26.

Exports to Mexico, Algeria and Netherland recorded the highest growth rate, increasing 1,244%, 66%, and 29% respectively. In contrast, exports to Asia countries declined significantly, with exports to Indonesia dropping 56%, Philippines 37%, Thailand 27%, and Chian 15%.

Domestic consumption is expected to grow to 4.9 million bags. Vietnam’s domestic coffee market is experiencing significant growth, driven by a burgeoning cafe culture, rising incomes, and a young, urban population eager for new coffee experiences. While exports remain the industry’s primary focus, the local market is growing in importance.

Annual per capita coffee consumption is growing rapidly and is projected to reach 3 kilograms this year. Busy lifestyles and longer working hours are boosting demand for instant coffee. According to Knowledge Sourcing Intelligence report, Vietnam’s instant coffee market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12%, totaling $731 million by 2028.

Domestic coffee consumption in 2025 was supported by the growing local demand and an increase in international visitors, concludes USDA.

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The removal of US tariffs on Brazilian green coffee imports, coupled with the almost certain postponement of the Eudr for another year, has helped to ease tensions in the markets to some extent.

However, market participants continue to closely monitor the weather in Brazil and Vietnam.

News from Brazil remains contradictory. Some sources claim that the main production areas have seen good levels of rainfall across the main coffee growing regions, with climatic models indicating rains to continue for the remainder of December.

Others paint a rather different picture. According to Vicente Zotti, managing partner of Pine Agronegócios, the next Brazilian harvest has already lost over 3 million bags of its production potential.

Minasul’s Operations Manager, Heberson Sastre, points out that in previous years, even with good rainfall, high temperatures hampered grain development.

The situation in Vietnam also appears uncertain. According to Bloomberg, Vietnam is on track to produce its biggest coffee crop in four years.

Nguyen Nam Hai, chairman of the influential Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), maintains his forecast that production in 2025/26 will be 10% higher than the previous season. However, he warns that any more rain in the coming weeks could affect bean quality.

Torrential rain brought by typhoons and tropical depressions has hit production areas in the Central Highlands, including the provinces of Dak Lak and Gia Lai, knocking down trees and raising fears of possible crop damage, just as bean collection started.

Farmers have completed at least 10% of the harvest, Hai said quoted by Bloomberg.

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With inflation fatigue setting in, consumers are being more intentional about how they spend their money. CE’s transaction data shows that brands such as Chili’s, Texas Roadhouse and Raising Cane’s are gaining market share by pairing fair pricing with consistent experiences, signaling a new era where value, not hype, is driving industry growth.

Key findings of CE’s 2026 Restaurant Outlook include:

• Value drives shifting wallet share: Consumers across income levels are becoming more deliberate about dining out. CE data shows grocery spending has gained share of stomach across all income groups. The result is a more polarized landscape where consumers are either trading down for savings or trading up for experience and atmosphere.
• Casual dining continues to outperform: In Q3 2025, Chili’s, Texas Roadhouse and Olive Garden saw steady growth as middle-income consumers opted for affordable sit-down meals. Red Lobster also rebounded during the same period after introducing new value combos and a simplified menu. These trends point to 2026 as a year when casual-dining leaders could build on that momentum, offering quality meals and reliable service without the premium price tag to maintain share.
• Chicken chains lead a multi-year growth trend: Since 2019-2020, the chicken category has expanded by 50 percent, fueled by menu simplicity and strong brand trust. Within the segment, Raising Cane’s has nearly doubled its market share to 11 percent over that time, overtaking Popeyes and KFC, while Chick-fil-A maintains its commanding lead with about 50 percent of total category spend. The data suggests this strength could continue into 2026, supported by consistent value, operational efficiency, and broad appeal across income levels.
• Some fast-casual brands lose momentum: Chipotle and Panera saw slower year-over-year growth in Q3 2025 as higher prices weighed on consumer demand, while Panda Express gained traction through menu innovation and digital engagement. The segment’s mixed performance underscores how consumers are becoming more selective — rewarding brands that balance novelty with clear value, a trend likely to shape spending patterns into the coming year.
• Regional favorites drive new growth: In the Southern U.S., Freebirds World Burrito and Biscuitville led year-over-year growth in Q3 2025 as consumers embraced comfort dining. Northeast standouts Springbone Kitchen and Blank Street Coffee thrived on healthy, convenient offerings. Together, these regional players highlight how local identity and community connection are becoming just as influential to dining choices as price or convenience.

“For restaurant brands, value in 2026 needs to go beyond discounts — they need to build consumer trust through fair pricing, consistent experiences and menus that deliver quality and satisfaction at every price point,” said Michael Gunther, Vice President, Head of Insights, at Consumer Edge. “Today’s consumers have adapted to years of inflationary pressures, and the brands seeing real momentum in this industry are those that treat value as part of their DNA, rather than a short-term promotion.”

Consumer Edge tracks more than 600 restaurant brands across all major categories, including casual dining, family dining, fast casual, fine dining, quick service and upscale casual. The analysis also includes wallet share by income, market share across different transaction sizes, customer retention and loyalty trends and demographic exposure by both income and age — offering new visibility into how the K-shaped economy and generational factors are influencing consumer dining behavior.

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In London, the contract for January delivery reached its monthly high on 3 November, closing at $4,693, and a monthly low of $4,223 on 14 November, ending the month, last Friday at $4,565.

The market was affected by the weather in Brazil and Vietnam, but was also influenced by political developments in the US and the European Union.

In Europe, EU leaders agreed to postpone and further relax the rules introduced by the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).

This eased tensions in the markets, given the serious repercussions that such a strict and complex law would have had on the entire global supply chain.

This eased tensions in the markets, given that such a strict and complex law, in its original form, would have had repercussions for the entire global supply chain.

In the United States, the White House’s decision to lift tariffs on around 100 products, including coffee, and the subsequent announcement of the removal of the 40% punitive tariffs on Brazilian food products, including green coffee, allowed the US industry to breathe a sigh of relief after months of tension, which had further inflated retail prices.

Returning to last Friday’s session, both markets posted marginal gains. Ice Arabica and Ice Robusta rose by 0.40% and 0.6% respectively. Prices were supported by the strengthening of the Brazilian real against the dollar, which rallied to a 1-week high against the dollar, discouraging export sales by Brazilian coffee producers, and triggering some short covering.

Markets continue to monitor weather conditions in Vietnam, where Typhoon Koto, the 15th named storm to enter the East Sea in 2025, unexpectedly weakened and was downgraded to a tropical depression earlier than forecast.

The tropical depression is expected to move southwestward at around 5 km/h. By 1:00 AM on December 2, it will be approximately 200 kilometers east of the coastal areas of Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces, report local media.

At that point, it is forecast to drop to level 6 with gusts at level 8. In the following 12 hours, the system will likely move further southwest at about 10 km/h and weaken into a low-pressure area offshore from Gia Lai–Dak Lak, according to VNDMS.

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Last week’s heavy rainfall delayed the harvesting and processing of beans. According to Bloomberg, the bad weather has brought flooding to a number of small plantations in Dak Lak, also causing some trees to fall.

The Vietnamese domestic market remains subdued due to the unstable weather.

According to Reuters, farmers in the Central Highlands sold beans at 110,500 dong to 111,500 dong (USD4.19 to USD4.23) per kg, down from last week’s 111,500 dong to 113,500 dong range.

Traders attributed the decline to the Trump administration’s decision to remove 40% tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports.

“Concerns over Vietnam’s delayed harvest and potential rains from an approaching storm kept prices from falling further,” said a trader in the coffee belt quoted by Reuters, adding the cherry-picking process in the Central Highlands is accelerating.”

New York was closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holiday. On the statistics front, it should be noted that certified ICE Arabica stocks rose further, on 26 November, to 408,939 bags, after falling below the 400,000 bag threshold last week.

Most of the certified lots (89,184 bags) come from Mexico, followed by Honduras (51,669), Nicaragua (50,814), Peru (46,230) and Tanzania (41,656). Most of the stocks (325,594 bags) are located in the Belgian port of Antwerp.

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The ICE Arabica March contract gained a further 1.8% to reach 383.30 cents. Meanwhile, the ICE Robusta January contract rose by 2.4% to close at $4,559.

We remind readers that tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day in the United States. Consequently, only the London market will be open, while the New York market will be closed.

According to reports by Climatempo, quoted by Escritório Carvalhaes, dry weather is expected to continue in Brazil’s central production areas at the end of the week, while instability is also predicted to decrease in Bahia and Espírito Santo.

A new cold front is expected to arrive in coastal areas at the beginning of next week, likely changing the weather significantly in inland south-eastern areas.

The bad weather is playing havoc In Vietnam coffee growing regions, but heavy and seasonally extended rains are forecast to soon start to dissipate.

According to I. & M. Smith, the domestic market is gearing up a notch albeit that farmers are for the most part well financed, lacking incentive in the prevailing conditions of the seasonally delayed harvest, to come to the market in any hurry, leading to a slow and measured pace of business.

Harvesting has also begun in Uganda, where production for the 2025/26 season is expected to be similar to last season’s. Estimates indicate this year’s crop could be around 6.7 million bags, of which 5.7 million being Robusta.

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The New York market was driven upwards by dryness concerns in Brazil’s Arabica coffee belt, particularly in Minas Gerais, where rainfall over the last two weeks has been less than half of the historical average (49%).

Putting pressure on prices in London were, on the other hand, forecasts of drier weather in Vietnam’s coffee-growing areas allowing the resumption of harvesting operations in Dak Lak, the country’s largest production area, which had been interrupted by heavy rains last week.

Dealers are still trying to gauge the damage from floods and landslides caused by the recent bad weather and typhoons that hit Vietnam.

The removal of US tariffs of 40% on Brazilian green coffee imports is set to resume exports from Brazil, the world’s leading coffee producer, to the United States, the world’s leading coffee consumer, following months of decline

“(We) need the market to digest this. More downside? Maybe, but I do not believe we’ll go below $3/lb. If anything, I would be a buyer into whatever market dip comes from this news,” said a Europe-based trader at a top global coffee trade house, quoted by Reuters.

According to the trader, the global Arabica balance is still in deficit, stock levels remain very low, the industry is short on supply and needs to buy, and the impact of La Niña in the coming months must also be assessed.

Meanwhile, certified stocks of Ice Arabica rose yesterday to 405,215 bags, after falling below the 400,000 bag threshold last week.

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In New York, the main contract for March delivery lost 1.9%, closing at a 7-week low 369.45 cents. In London, the benchmark contract for January delivery fell 2.7%, ending the week at $4,506.

The decline of the real, which reached its lowest level against the dollar in the last five weeks, also contributed to the downturn in coffee futures.

The Trump administration’s decision was welcomed by the National Coffee Association of the United States (NCA), the leading association of the US coffee industry.

The Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA) also expressed satisfaction, stating in a note that the new executive order promulgated by President Trump on 20 November corrected the distortions “created by tariffs between the main buyer and consumer market for coffee, the US, and the main global producer and exporter, Brazil.”

Tariffs between August and October contributed to exports of specialty coffee falling 55% to 190,000 60-kilogram bags versus the same period in 2024, according to BSCA

However, 40% tariffs remain in place on imports of processed coffee. This is a severe blow to the Brazilian industry, as the US accounts for 20% of soluble coffee exports.

Brazilian exports of soluble coffee to the United States have fallen by 52% since last August.

“Instant coffee was not included in the exemptions specified in the annexes to the Executive Orders,” the Brazilian Instant Coffee Association (ABICS) said in a statement. “This contrasts with the overall progress in bilateral negotiations and represents a continuing challenge for the sector.”

If tariffs are maintained, Brazil risks being permanently replaced by other suppliers, ABICS added.

“Once that market share and consumer loyalty are lost, future recovery will be an extremely difficult mission, with lasting losses for the entire national production chain,” ABICS concluded.

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This follows a similar executive order by the Trump administration to remove tariffs on various agricultural products from other countries in an effort to mitigate sharp increases in the US shopping basket.

According to an LSEG report, retail coffee prices in the United States have risen by up to 40% over the past year.

Yesterday, Thursday 20 November, coffee prices closed higher after news emerged from Vietnam that heavy rains were hampering harvesting operations in Dak Lak province, the country’s main Robusta production area. Further rainfall is anticipated, which could potentially damage the crops.

In New York, the contract for March delivery gained 0.5%, ending the day at 376.65 cents.

In London, the January ICE Robusta contract rose 2.6% to settle at a 2-week high$4,631.

The removal of US tariffs on coffee was welcomed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and by the Brazilian coffee industry.

The measure will be retroactively applied and will see imports that arrived on or after the 13 November eligible for tariff-free entry and potentially for refunds on previously paid duties, according to the text of the order released by the White House.

Brazilian exports to the United States had fallen sharply in recent months but are now set to recover quickly, which will lead to a significant readjustment in trade flows.

“You can expect some thousands of bags of Brazilian coffee that were sitting in bonded warehouses to start moving quickly to U.S. roasters,” said commodities analyst Judith Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting in an interview with Reuters.

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The main bearish factor was the weather in Brazil, with heavy rains forecast in the coffee belt between the end of this week and the beginning of next week.

Meanwhile, a new round of torrential rain, flooding and landslides is hitting central Vietnam, a key area for Robusta production, where more than 1,500 millimetres of rain has fallen in the last three days, with floods and landslides causing 16 deaths and 5 missing persons so far, flooding 43,000 homes and 10,000 hectares of land.

According to traders interviewed by Reuters, floodwaters have also inundated coffee plantations, hampering harvesting operations, which are in full swing at this time of year.

“Some coffee farms in low-lying areas of Dak Lak are deep in flood water,” said a coffee trader based in the province, quoted by Reuters. Heavy rain is continuing there, slowing down the harvest, another Dak Lak-based trader said, according to the same source.

The main harvest is also in full swing in Colombia, where current estimates predict a decline in this year’s harvest to around 13.5 million bags, due to unfavourable weather conditions in the first part of the year and the possible negative impact of La Niña in the coming months.

Estimates for the harvest in Mexico and Central America are also cautious, with forecasts predicting a partial recovery in production in 2025/26 compared to the harvest of the year just ended.

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