The initiative, which will mobilize a total investment of USD 30.9 million—of which USD 23.1 million correspond to the GCF and USD 7.8 million are co-financed by MAPA/CEPLAC and IICA—will directly benefit more than 69,000 family farmers and indirectly benefit nearly 400,000 people in 26 municipalities in the states of Bahía and Pará, in northeastern and northern Brazil.

The project will seek to reduce 5.18 million tons of CO₂ equivalent by restoring 12,500 hectares of degraded areas and promoting cocoa agroforestry systems (SAF-cocoa) that combine native trees and species of economic value. This innovative strategy will allow for increasing climate resilience, restoring degraded soils, preserving biodiversity and improving income for farming families.

The strategic partnership between IICA and CEPLAC is the foundation of the project, combining CEPLAC’s technical expertise in genetic improvement, research and rural extension with IICA’s capacity to manage international cooperation and promote innovative solutions for sustainable agriculture.

Together, the institutions will promote a new development model based on scientific knowledge, technological innovation and social inclusion.

Key actions will include the modernization of laboratories and nurseries, the use of digital technical assistance technologies (digital TARE), the training of farmers and technical specialists, and access to green credit opportunities through the National Program for the Strengthening of Family Farming (PRONAF). The project will also promote applied research and the creation of an intelligent monitoring system that will integrate productive, environmental and social information to guide public policies and future investments.

According to Gabriel Delgado, IICA Representative in Brazil, “the partnership with CEPLAC and the support of the Green Climate Fund will enable Brazilian cocoa to become a model for innovation and sustainability, while also strengthening family farming and protecting the country’s most biodiverse ecosystems”.

The four-year project is part of Brazil’s efforts to meet its climate goals, which include restoring 30 million hectares of degraded land and reducing emissions by 59% by 2035.

Through these efforts, Brazilian cocoa is solidifying its standing as a sustainable, inclusive and innovative production model that contributes to a low-carbon and climate-resilient rural economy.

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With a presence in over 140 countries, UPL works closely with smallholder farmers and large-scale commercial growers, empowering them with sustainable agricultural solutions that drive climate action and food security.

Drawing on this experience, UPL has curated 20 inspiring farmer stories from around the world, showcasing how agriculture can advance greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, energy security, water conservation, soil health regeneration, and biodiversity protection – the five pillars guiding UPL’s engagement at COP30.

UPL’s #AFarmerCan campaign makes a compelling appeal: Policy must stand with farmers. Consumers must recognize and celebrate their strength, resilience, and innovation.

As part of its campaign advocacy, UPL is proposing a four-pillar incentive framework to strengthen farmer resilience:

• Pay: Reward farmers for adopting climate-smart practices.
• Protect: Offer farmer subsidies and insurance to guard against risks.
• Procure: Strengthen farmer access to public markets for certified sustainable produce.
• Promote: Scale digital tools, soil health data, and knowledge training for farmers.

Speaking about the initiative, Mr. Jai Shroff, Chairman & Group CEO, UPL, said: “With #AFarmerCan, we are amplifying a simple but urgent message: the future of climate resilience begins in the fields. Farmers are already leading the way – innovating, adapting, and regenerating. Yet their contributions remain under-recognized in global climate discourse. This campaign is our call to policymakers, institutions, and consumers to stand with farmers, empower them, and make them central to climate action.”

UPL is amplifying its message through a global 360° campaign across Brazil and key markets, blending high-impact outdoor branding with immersive digital engagement. In Belém, the campaign spans airport signage, 1,000+ branded taxis, and 200 buses featuring QR codes that unlock powerful first-hand stories from farmers. Complementing this are targeted digital campaigns, social media activations, and an evocative film showcasing farmers as climate heroes. The initiative also includes eco-friendly merchandise — T-shirts, tote bags, and water bottles.

UPL will be present in COP30’s Blue Zone — the official area organized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for formal negotiations and national pavilions — serving carbon-smart coffee from Brazil’s Mió brand. By serving coffee that captures more CO₂ than it emits, UPL will offer delegates a tangible experience of how climate-smart farming can accelerate progress toward global climate goals. As part of this sponsorship, UPL has also secured rights to use the conference’s official branding.

UPL will showcase its Agrosphere at the AgriZone, an exhibition space organized by Embrapa (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation) where UPL will host expert panels and debates based on the five pillars that guide UPL’s engagement at COP30. UPL will also participate in the Planeta Campo Forum and present a low methane rice case study from India.

Through ‘#AFarmerCan’, UPL reaffirms its commitment to shaping a global movement that celebrates farmers as climate heroes and stewards of a healthier planet.

UPL is a global leader in biosolutions and agricultural solutions, operating in over 140 countries with 43 manufacturing sites, 57 R&D facilities, and a portfolio of 15,000+ registered products worldwide.

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Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns cause big variations in crop yields from year to year, meaning that farmers cannot rely on the stability of their harvest, and their produce is at risk.

The researchers specifically investigated Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) as a way of mitigating climate change in the top grape, coffee and cacao growing regions of western Europe, South America and West Africa.

SAI is a hypothetical solar geoengineering method that involves releasing reflective particles into the stratosphere to cool the Earth’s surface, mimicking the natural cooling effects of volcanic eruptions.

Researchers examined whether SAI could help stabilize growing conditions for the crops between 2036 and 2045. Using climate simulations across 18 key regions, they assessed crop suitability based on temperature, rainfall, humidity, and disease risk. While SAI did reduce surface temperatures, it failed to consistently preserve the conditions needed for successful cultivation of these crops. Only six out of 18 regions showed reliable improvement under SAI scenarios compared to a scenario without SAI.

The study found that unpredictable rainfall and humidity played a major role in undermining SAI’s effectiveness. Although SAI could bring down temperatures, it may not reliably manage floods and humidity, leading to inconsistent outcomes in crop yield and projected revenue.

“Reducing temperature with SAI alone isn’t enough,” said co-author Dr Ariel Morrison. “For instance, cacao species, while more tolerant of hot temperatures than coffee and grapes, are highly susceptible to pests and diseases caused by a combination of high temperatures, rainfall, and humidity. Natural climate variability also cannot be ignored – it leads to a wide range of outcomes under the same SAI scenario that could affect the livelihoods of farmers growing cacao, coffee, and grapes.”

”SAI climate intervention may offer temporary relief from rising temperatures in some regions, but it is not a guaranteed fix for the challenges facing luxury crop farming. Adaptation strategies tailored to local conditions, investment in resilient agricultural practices, and global cooperation are essential to saving these crops and the communities that depend on them,” adds Dr Morrison.

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Achieving SBTi validation demonstrates ofi’s commitment to delivering verifiable, low-carbon products and solutions to its customers at leading food and beverage companies, who face growing consumer demand for sustainable products and stringent sustainability regulations.

Roel van Poppel, Chief Sustainability Officer at ofi, said: “We’re proving our commitment to building a sustainable future by letting the science dictate our course of action. With sourcing and manufacturing of ingredients a major contributor to our customers’ carbon footprints, this validation of our climate targets gives our customers confidence we can partner with them on their decarbonisation journeys.”

ofi’s climate action targets are part of its Choices for Change sustainability strategy and include a science-based target to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across the value chain by 2050. Its near-term targets, with 2020 as a base year, include:

• A 50% reduction in absolute Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, addressing emissions within ofi’s own operations and energy use.
• A 30% reduction in absolute Scope 3 emissions by 2030, covering indirect emissions from purchased goods, energy activities, transportation, and waste.
• A 30% reduction in absolute emissions from Forestry, Land Use, and Agriculture by 2030 on both ofi’s estates and supplier farms, with a firm no-deforestation commitment.

ofi’s roadmap to achieving these science-based targets includes investment and innovation across the supply chain. In its processing operations, ofi is driving energy efficiency, implementing fuel switching and purchasing renewable electricity to reduce emissions, which led to a 7% drop in 20242 – even as processing volumes grew.

On the ground in sourcing origins, twenty-four decarbonization projects are underway with customers and partners driving GHG reductions and removals on farms through climate-smart agriculture, agroforestry and deforestation prevention. In Brazil for example, a joint effort between ofi and Nestlé is helping coffee farmers cut GHG emissions primarily through smarter fertilizer use, with a ~20% reduction since 2022 according to ofi data3.

At the upcoming New York Climate Week, ofi will join the Wildlife Conservation Society, PepsiCo and other industry leaders to discuss how aligning such efforts under shared frameworks for action and measurement can drive emissions reductions at landscape-level4.

Roel van Poppel: “Rapid and deep emission cuts are required across the sector to achieve a net-zero food system before 2050. SBTi validation makes us accountable and positions us as the partner of choice for customers also aiming for real change and transparent reporting in their supply chains.”

For more information on ofi’s climate action targets, please visit our Sustainability page.

1 Target dashboard – Science Based Targets Initiative
2 Emissions tCO2e for ofi’s Tier 1 sites (49 large processing facilities), compared to 2020 baseline.
3 Based on a 2024 assessment of 240+ farmers covering ~13,000 hectares
4 The Nature Hub @CWNYC2025 Putting It Into Practice: A Case Study on Landscape-Level Action for Deforestation-Free and Climate Resilient Commodities

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The “Future Supplier Initiative” with non-food factories

Around 98 per cent of Tchibo’s emissions are generated in the supply chain. 32 per cent of these are generated in the production of textiles, such as the dyeing of fabrics and the sewing together of the finished textile. As a new member of the “Future Supplier Initiative”, Tchibo is working with other textile companies to support collective decarbonisation in its own supply chains. The initiative develops and finances measures that support textile brands and their supply chain partners in achieving their climate targets. This is realised by increasing energy efficiency and switching to renewable energy in non-food production facilities. Through cooperation within the initiative, the factories also gain access to attractive loans that facilitate the implementation of decarbonisation measures. The initiative was launched in Bangladesh, one of the most important manufacturing countries for Tchibo and the textile sector. The programme is to be expanded to other countries in the future.

The Tchibo coffee programme

Tchibo is strongly committed to sustainable coffee cultivation in order to improve the living and working conditions of farmers and promote environmental protection. Climate protection is also part of this initiative, with Tchibo implementing comprehensive programmes to reduce emissions. Around 73 percent of emissions in coffee cultivation come from the production and use of fertilisers. As part of the Tchibo coffee programme, farmers are trained on site to optimise the use of fertilisers and switch to organic alternatives. In addition, coffee farmers are trained to reduce irrigation – and therefore energy consumption – and to reduce methane emissions from wastewater through innovative wastewater treatment techniques. In addition to reducing emissions, Tchibo also focuses on carbon removals, i.e. the binding of greenhouse gases through reforestation, the introduction of agroforestry systems and the use of biochar. Tchibo is already active in six countries with its own programmes (Brazil, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Tanzania and Vietnam) and also works with partner initiatives. By 2027, all countries from which Tchibo regularly sources coffee are to follow suit.

Sea freight initiative ZEMBA in logistics

90 per cent of global trade is transported by sea. Maritime transport is also the backbone of Tchibo’s logistics network and at the same time a major driver of emissions. 100 per cent of all Tchibo coffees and around 80 per cent of Tchibo non-food goods are transported by container ship. As a member of the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA), Tchibo is working together with other leading companies such as Amazon and Patagonia to create access to emission-free transport solutions for sea freight.

ZEMBA is a unique buyer community that aims to promote the most sustainable, scalable and economically viable solutions for the maritime sector. This means accelerating the commercial deployment of zero-emission shipping, enabling economies of scale and helping shippers maximise their emissions saving potential beyond their own capabilities.

“We still have some way to go, but we are not at the beginning and have already initiated important measures in our direct emissions and in our supply chains,” emphasises Kristina Kölling, Head of Environment & Circularity at Tchibo.

Tchibo will consistently continue on its climate protection course – for a more climate-friendly future along the entire supply chain.

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The study, led by Maximillian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), investigated 16 examples across 18 countries over a two-year period (2022-2024), where price spikes were associated with extreme heat, drought or heavy precipitation events, many of which were so extreme they exceeded all historical precedent prior to 2020.

Among these examples:

• In the UK, potato prices increased 22% (from Jan to Feb 2024) following extreme winter rainfall that scientists said was made 20% heavier and 10 times more likely by climate change.
• In California and Arizona in the United States, vegetable prices increased 80% in November 2022 after the extreme summer drought in western states, which faced water shortages, extreme heat, and soil moisture drought conditions throughout the summer of 2022.
• In Ethiopia, food prices were 40% higher in March 2023 following the 2022 drought in the Horn of Africa, the worst in 40 years, which scientists said was made “much stronger” and “about 100 times more likely” by climate change.
• In Spain and Italy, the 2022-2023 drought in southern Europe, for which scientists said “global warming contributed for more than 30% of the (2022 summer) drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation”, drove an increase in the price of olive oil of 50% year-on-year across the EU by January 2024, on top of price increases the previous year. Spain produces over two fifths of the world’s olive oil.
• Global cocoa prices were almost 300% (280%) higher in April 2024 following the heatwave in Ivory Coast and Ghana just two months earlier, which scientists said was made 4∘C hotter by climate change. Together, these two countries account for nearly two thirds (60%) of global cocoa production.
• The global coffee market has also taken serious hits. Brazil is the world’s biggest exporter of Arabica, while Vietnam is the biggest exporter of Robusta. Global coffee prices were 55% higher in August 2024 following the 2023 drought in Brazil, which scientists said was made 10-30 times more likely due to climate change, while Robusta coffee prices were 100% higher in July 2024 following record-breaking heat a few months earlier in Vietnam and across Asia.
• In India, the price of onions and potatoes jumped by over 80% in the second quarter of 2024 after a heatwave in May, a “largely unique event” that was made at least 1.5°C warmer by climate change.
• In Japan, rice prices were 48% higher in September 2024 after the August heatwave, as the country experienced its hottest summer (on a par with 2023) since regional records began in 1946, with summer temperatures 1.76∘C higher than average.
• In South Korea, cabbage prices were 70% higher in September 2024 after the August heatwave. The country experienced its highest average summer time temperature since such records began half a century ago – nearly two degrees higher than the historic average.
• Pakistan experienced a 50% increase in rural food prices in weeks following the August 2022 floods, with monsoon rains 547% above average and record-breaking cumulative weekly rainfall in July (200 mm) on already saturated soils as the pre-monsoon rainfall was 111% higher than the long-term average since 1951.
• In Mexico, fruit and vegetable prices were 20% higher in January 2024 following the 2023 drought, one of the most severe droughts that Mexico has faced in more than a decade

Research by the Food Foundation shows that, on average, healthy food is twice as expensive per calories as less healthy food. When prices increase, low- income households are likely to cut back on nutritious foods like fruit and vegetables because they can’t afford them.

Climate change-induced food price shocks could therefore exacerbate a range of health outcomes, from malnutrition (not getting enough nutrients, which is a particular concern for children whose nutritional needs are higher) to a range of chronic diet-related conditions including coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and many cancers. There is also a growing body of evidence connecting food insecurity and poor diets with mental health outcomes.

Maximillian Kotz, Marie-Curie post-doctoral fellow at BSC and lead author of the study, said:

“Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, and it’s already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world.

“People are noticing, with rising food prices number two on the list of climate impacts they see in their lives, second only to extreme heat itself.

“Sadly, when the price of food shoots up, low-income families often have to resort to less nutritious, cheaper foods. Diets like this have been linked to a range of health conditions like cancer, diabetes and heart disease.”

Central bank mandates for controlling inflation may become harder to deliver as increasingly extreme weather makes food prices more volatile domestically and in global markets.

The research comes ahead of the UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake on Sunday 27 July, where world leaders will meet to discuss threats to the global food system. The event is co-hosted by Ethiopia and Italy, both of whom have been hit by climate change-induced food price shocks and are featured in the study.

When it comes to the UK, potatoes aren’t the only British-grown commodity affected by climate change. Cereals, onions, sugar beet, cauliflowers and broccoli have also been hit over the past few years, all while ‘back-up’ imports from other countries have been failing due to climate impacts abroad.

Amber Sawyer, analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said:

“Last year, the UK had its third-worst arable harvest on record, and England its second worst, following extreme rainfall that scientists said was made about 10 times more likely and 20% more intense by climate change.

“But it’s not just that. British farmers have been yo-yoing between extremes for the past few years. They’ve gone from having to contend with extreme heat in 2022, when temperatures reached 40°C for the first time, to extreme rain in late 2023 and early 2024, both of which ruined their crops. Fast forward to now, and they’ve just faced the warmest spring since records began and the sixth driest. For them, climate change isn’t a distant warning: it’s a reality they’re living every day.

“These extremes are also hitting consumers. In the UK, climate change added £360 to the average household food bill across 2022 and 2023 alone. We’ve seen much more extreme weather since then.”

The world has currently warmed by an average of about 1.3∘C above pre-industrial levels, but analysis by the UN has found that the current trajectory is for around 3°C of warming, which it says will be ‘debilitating.

2023. the hottest year ever recorded, was then overtaken by 2024. As early as December last year, experts at BSC, WMO and Met Office predicted that 2025 will be one of the top three hottest years alongside them.

While the 2023/24 El Niño likely played a role in amplifying these extremes, their increased frequency and intensity is in line with the expected and observed effects of human-induced climate change.

The research was conducted by an interdisciplinary team from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), European Central Bank (ECB), University of Aberdeen and the Food Foundation.

Reference: Kotz, M., Donat, M. G., Lancaster, T., Parker, M., Smith, P., Taylor, A., & Vetter, S. H. (2025). Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks. Environmental Research Letters, 20(8), 081001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade45f

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Rainbow Crops is an agtech company using an AI-powered technology platform that combines multiplex genome editing and precision breeding to develop crop varieties that are both climate resilient and optimized for yield and other key traits. The investment – PINC’s third in 2025 – supports Paulig’s aim to develop a food system that enables the well-being of people and the planet.

Rainbow Crops, a spin-off from leading research institute VIB, has an integrated platform called Trait Foundry. The platform, which combines advanced AI, genome editing, precision breeding, and automated plant analysis, enables the improvement of several crop traits at once by generating and testing carefully designed genetic variations.

The company is led by serial biotech entrepreneur Giacomo Bastianelli, who is joining as Co-founder and CEO of Rainbow Crops. “When I first met with the VIB scientists behind the technology, I was impressed by the results, which revealed a transformative approach to engineering complex traits,” commented Giacomo Bastianelli. “We’re forging partnerships with seed and breeding companies to co-develop next-generation crop genetics that tackle the challenges of tomorrow’s agri-food systems.”

The company is targeting key agronomic traits such as drought tolerance, heat resilience and input efficiency – critical traits in the face of climate change that have long been difficult to improve through traditional plant breeding. The platform is designed to work across a wide range of species and early tests in corn have shown that it can scale effectively and meet real-world market needs.

“We are excited about the broad potential of the platform, and also that the first POC is in corn, which is one of Paulig’s top three crops used extensively in both corn chips and tortillas for brands such as Santa Maria, Poco Loco and Zanuy”, explains Marika King, Director of PINC. “Rainbow Crops is built on a solid scientific foundation and has amazing collaborations in the making. It is also part of an impressive ecosystem with VIB and a great set of early investors, so we are more than happy to support this journey”.

Rainbow Crops is a spin-out from VIB, a leading life sciences research institute based in Belgium. The company is backed in addition by a strong syndicate of early-stage investors, including PINC, Agri Investment Fund (AIF) and Qbic.

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While some have displayed La Niña-like signals over recent months, a consistent and sustained shift in the atmosphere has not been observed. Ocean temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have started to warm in recent weeks, away from the La Niña threshold, although they are still cooler than the historical average.

The Bureau’s model suggests SSTs are likely to remain within the ENSO-neutral thresholds (−0.8 °C to +0.8 °C) throughout the forecast period to February 2025. Of the 6 other climate models surveyed, 2 models suggest SSTs in the tropical Pacific are likely to exceed the La Niña threshold (below −0.8 °C) throughout December to February, which is sufficient time to be classified as a La Niña event, though this would be considered a very short-lived event compared to the historical record. All models forecast neutral ENSO values by March.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below the negative IOD threshold (−0.40 °C) since mid-October. If the IOD index remains below the threshold for another week, it would indicate a negative IOD event is underway. However, all but one of the surveyed climate models indicate that the IOD index is expected to return to neutral levels in December, in line with the typical IOD event lifecycle.

Global SSTs remain at near record levels as at 24 November, with temperatures since July falling just short of the record temperatures observed during 2023, yet above all other years since observations began in 1854. The sustained nature of this significant global ocean heat suggests that climate indicators such as ENSO and IOD may not behave or evolve as they have in the past.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is neutral as at 23 November, having been positive for most of November. It is forecast to become positive again in the coming fortnight. SAM is also forecast to have a greater than usual chance of being in the positive phase during December.

A moderate to strong pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located in the Indian Ocean (as at 24 November). Most models indicate the MJO will shift eastwards over the coming fortnight and weaken in early December as it moves across the Maritime Continent.

ENSO, IOD, MJO and SAM are broad indicators of the expected climate and are just some of many factors in a complex system. The long-range forecast provides better guidance on local rainfall and temperature patterns.

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While some atmospheric indices have displayed La Niña-like signals over recent months, a consistent/sustained shift has not been observed.

The Bureau’s model suggests SSTs are likely to remain within the ENSO-neutral thresholds (−0.8 °C to +0.8 °C) throughout the forecast period to February 2025. Of the 6 other climate models surveyed, only one model suggests SSTs in the tropical Pacific are likely to exceed the La Niña threshold (below −0.8 °C) throughout November to February, which is sufficient time to be classified as a La Niña event. All models forecast neutral ENSO values by March.

The latest Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index value is −0.94 °C for the week ending 27 October, marking the fifth week close to or below the negative IOD threshold (−0.40 °C). All models indicate that the IOD index will meet or exceed negative IOD thresholds in November,

Global SSTs remain at near record levels, with temperatures since July being just short of the record temperatures observed during 2023, yet above all other years since observations began in 1854. The sustained nature of this significant global ocean heat suggests that climate indicators such as ENSO and IOD may not behave or evolve as they have in the past.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral (as at 27 October) and is forecast to remain mostly neutral over the coming fortnight. The months of November and December are tending towards positive SAM.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Western Pacific (as at 27 October). Most models suggest a moderately strong MJO pulse will continue to move eastwards and weaken slightly as it moves across the Western Pacific and towards the Americas over the coming fortnight.

ENSO, IOD, MJO and SAM are broad indicators of the expected climate and are just some of many factors in a complex system. The long-range forecast provides better guidance on local rainfall and temperature patterns.

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The Bureau’s model suggests SSTs are likely to remain within the ENSO-neutral range (−0.8 °C to +0.8 °C) throughout the forecast period to February 2025.

Of the 6 other climate models surveyed, 3 suggest SSTs in the tropical Pacific are likely to exceed the La Niña threshold (below −0.8 °C) from October, and another 3 models forecast SSTs to fall just short of the threshold from November. Should a La Niña develop in the coming months, it is forecast to be relatively weak (in terms of the strength of the SST anomaly) and short-lived, with all models indicating a return to neutral by February.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with the weekly IOD index of −0.39 °C (as of 29 September). Most models indicate that the IOD is likely to remain neutral, but weakly negative, for the rest of the year. An IOD event is unlikely.

Global SSTs remain at near-record levels, with temperatures since July falling just short of the record temperatures observed during 2023, yet well above all other years since observations began in 1854. The sustained nature of this significant global ocean heat suggests that climate patterns such as ENSO and IOD may not necessarily behave or evolve as they have in the past.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is negative (as at 28 September). The SAM index is forecast to return to neutral levels during the coming week. A negative SAM typically decreases rainfall in eastern Australia during spring.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located in the Western Hemisphere (as at 29 September). Most models suggest the MJO will move eastwards towards the Indian Ocean and weaken in the coming days and may reemerge in the Maritime Continent in mid-October.

ENSO, the IOD, the MJO and the SAM are broad indicators of the expected climate, and are just some of many factors in a complex system. The long-range forecast provides better guidance on local rainfall and temperature patterns.

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