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MILAN – The increasingly real prospect that the US may impose punitive tariffs on Colombia continues to destabilise the coffee futures markets, which closed sharply higher again yesterday, this time also on the Robusta front. On Tuesday 21 October, the contract for December delivery of the ICE Arabica gained a further 750 points (+1.9%), closing at 413.55 cents, not far from a high of 417.65 cents reached on the 15 September.
The ICE Robusta also turned upwards, with the January contract gaining $110 (+2.5%) to end the day at $4,574.
Certified stocks in New York remained unchanged yesterday at 468,410 bags, the lowest level in the last 19 months.
Certified stocks in London amount to 6,152 lots, equal to 1,025,333 bags, the lowest level in the last three months. Rainfall in Vietnam continues to favour the final development of the new crop, with harvesting operations set to begin in in a few weeks.
After three consecutive years of disappointing harvests, Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) expects a sharp recovery in production this year, with a 10% growth to 31 million bags.
As for the 2025 calendar year, the Ministry expects exports to reach 25 million bags by the end of December, earning a record $8 billion, compared to $5.65 billion in 2024.
The influential Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) estimates the value of coffee exports during the 2024/25 coffee year (October-September) at $8.4 billion, an increase of 60% over the previous year.
At the beginning of October, prices stood at around 115,000 VND per kilogramme ($4.37) – approximately 5,000 VND higher than the price recorded during the same period last year.
